For several months now, I’ve been reading and hearing a constant drumming of ever-more-worrisome news reports and commentary with the term “drumbeat,” as in “The drumbeat for war with Iran grows louder.” This administration has really gone off the deep end, and the poison coming out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue about how we should attack Iran is so inflammatory (and so unnecessary, as I’ll discuss later on), that I’m reminded of the Warner Brothers cartoons of the late 1940s, which often depicted a clownish, raging Hitler frantically chewing on his office rugs and the curtains in his madness. No, I am NOT comparing our president, or our vice-president, to Hitler. I am comparing them to characters in a Diane Arbus photograph. I am comparing them to Looney Tunes. Just not as funny.
Does anyone really think we are doing so well with the war(s) we have that we can possibly believe it’s a good time to start another one? And what, pray tell, would we fight this new one with? We’re plumb out of weaponry – except for bullshit, which this administration has been piling up in abundance. How about delivery systems? I’ll leave that to the Neocons who have been burying us in the stuff for all these years.
Look, it really doesn’t have to go this way. Aren’t you as sick of all the carnage as I am? Can anyone possibly think we should be sending even more of our children to die for so fruitless an endeavor as showing Iran that we have bigger cojones – and even less concern for the lives of our kids than they do?
When Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came to speak at Columbia University, one of the many things he said which drew little comment was that his country was pursuing nuclear power not for its warmaking potential, but simply as an energy source. Iran, he said, lacks the capacity to refine most of its crude oil. Most of what it extracts, it sells, and then it has to import gasoline and other petroleum products, much the same as we do. That statement piqued my interest. So I looked it up. OPEC says Iran now produces about 3.4 million barrels/day (bpd) of crude. Iran’s own figures, if they’re accurate, show that its few refineries are processing about one-fifth of that amount to produce 40 million liters/day (340,000 bpd) of gasoline. But Iran needs 30 million liters/day more (another 255,000 bpd) to meet its current needs.
So here’s my idea. It’s a typically American solution to a problem. Let’s throw money at it, instead of the bodies of our children. Let’s take Ahmadinejad at his word, and assume he and the ruling mullahs really want to have their own gasoline. Let’s offer to build, at our expense, a world-class, $10-billion oil refinery in Iran – or, even better, TWO such facilities – like ones we have built in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States. A refinery on that scale can process about 500,000 bpd of crude into roughly 250,000 bpd of the good stuff. So, one refinery will make Iran happy. Now, give the no-bid construction contract to KBR, formerly part of Halliburton. That will make Dick Cheney happy. If Cheney’s happy, Pres. Bush is happy, too (means they might be able to go hunting together safely). And you all know what happens when Pres. Bush is happy? (Answer: Maybe Ahmadinejad shuts up for awhile. Maybe Tailgunner Joe Lieberman does, too. Worth it, no?)
Now, if we build two of these big boys, we first cut a deal where we get a guaranteed equivalent amount of crude (Or, what the Hell, let’s just take the gasoline. Our refining capacity isn’t so great, either!), at no cost, once construction has been completed, for just long enough to pay for the two refineries. In case you don’t want to do the math yourself, 500,000 bpd of crude oil, at $90/barrel – last week’s oil future price -- is $45 million/day. The refinery is paid for in 222 days! Two of ‘em are paid for within 14 months. Oh yes, the deal requires Iran to curb its nuclear program, under supervision and with verification of neutral outside observers.
So, Iran is refining another 1 million bpd of its crude, and we are splitting the output. After the repayment period is up, we agree to continue buying the same amount of crude, or the gasoline, at current prices – or, better still, we could “lock in” a price in advance like the smarter airlines do. Iran will still be pumping more than 1.5 million bpd of unrefined crude that it can sell to whomever it wants (my bet is on China).
Another way to see the advantages here: The last figures I saw peg our total daily crude oil imports at about 1.4 million bpd. We just cut that by a third, without having any new refineries built here, where they could damage our fragile Arctic wilderness ecosystem, or be swamped by a super-hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. And the $10 billion? Sounds like a lot, sure, but that’s how much the Pentagon says our current war on Iraq/Afghanistan/Terror costs it every month. You want to scale it up? Sure! Why not build FOUR $10-billion refineries? That’s four months of war. For a long-term deal that accounts for better than half of our current level of imported crude. And doesn’t kill anybody. Take that, OPEC!
Objection! You say Iran is our enemy, it’s a terrorist state, and we shouldn’t be negotiating with a terrorist state. Oh, I can deal with that as easy as 1-2-3: (1) After 9/11, Iran was the FIRST nation to offer its condolences, support and complete cooperation in catching those responsible – including help against the Taliban. We rejected their offer. The November, 2007, issue of Esquire has an authoritative article that describes how, in April 2003, Iran floated a detailed Mideast peace plan that promised it would take “decisive action” against local terrorists, end its support for Hamaz and the Islamic Jihad, mothball its nuclear program AND agree to recognize Israel. But our government decided to ignore this incredible offer. (2) If you define a terrorist state as one that provides money, arms and other support to groups in another country bent on violence and fomenting unrest, just remember that the U.S. has openly provided exactly such succor to the Iraqi Kurds for decades. Now, some of the Kurds are attacking our longtime ally, Turkey. Oops! (3) Actually, NOT negotiating is how armed conflict usually starts, or persists. To say we don’t negotiate with terrorist states is bullshit, too. Our administration has branded North Korea as a terrorist state, yet we’ve been openly negotiating with them at Panmunjom since the 1950s. Any more questions?
Objection overruled. To get back to my plan, far and away the best thing about the idea is that we get plenty of that nice petroleum that our complete catastrophe in Iraq was supposedly all about, AND we’ll be leaving no more of our children’s precious blood spilled needlessly on the sand. Okay, you can put away those drums now.
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