Bush `Domino' Theory on Iraq Does Not Add up

by Richard Gwyn

Comparisons between Iraq and Vietnam have become commonplace ever since the publication last week of the report of the Iraq Study Group with its judgment that the situation is "grave and deteriorating."

One important comparison has been overlooked, though: Just as president Lyndon Johnson used the excuse of the "domino theory" to justify keeping American troops in Vietnam, so President George W. Bush is now using the same tactic.

More and more these days, the White House is making the argument that if the U.S. pulls out of Iraq too quickly, the consequences to the region and to the war on terrorism will be disastrous.

This is uncannily similar to the arguments made some 30 years ago against a U.S. pullout from Vietnam. Then, the proposition went, a Communist victory in South Vietnam would be followed by a series of Communist takeovers in Southeast Asia, all the way down to Indonesia.

It's certainly not true that the fact that no dominoes fell after North Vietnam's victory means that it can be assumed automatically that nothing much will happen after a U.S. pullout from Iraq.

It's true, further, that there are valid reasons for concern about what may happen once the American leave.

An all-out civil war is just about inevitable — to the extent that it isn't already happening. This could spread across the region as neighbouring Sunni and Shiite countries, from Iran to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, get involved in order to help their religious kin. In parallel, the threat that an independent Kurdistan might then emerge could draw in Turkey.

It's inevitable, in addition, that an American withdrawal will constitute a huge victory for Al Qaeda and for the terrorists. They will have defeated the "Great Satan." Within the wreckage of a dismembered Iraq they will be able to function — training new terrorists, for instance — with near impunity,

It's worth recalling, though, why it was that so little happened in post-war Vietnam.

Principally, it was nationalism that kept any dominoes from falling.

Communist Vietnam, this is to say, was as hostile to Communist China as to the far-distant United States; indeed, these two countries were at war with each other only a few years later.

As well, all of the energy and resources of the new Vietnamese government were devoted to reconstruction after the devastation of war.

Lastly, communism itself was then in ideological retreat. It was, ever more clearly each passing year, on the wrong side of history.

History never repeats itself exactly. Local conditions are always just that — local, and distinctive.

But similarities do exist. The most important, surely, is that the war in Iraq is already lost. A U.S. pullback is inevitable, sooner or later.

There is thus no way the U.S. can avoid a humiliating retreat, with a consequent loss of prestige. Delay will stretch out the humiliation longer, but it cannot avoid it.

Nationalism shouldn't be ignored. Iraq is, of course, an artificial country. But it has lasted for nearly a century.

It's now being torn apart by sectarianism, but there still exists a pan-Iraqi nationalism: It's worth remembering that during the Iraq-Iran war of the 1980s, Iraqi Shiites remained completely loyal to their own country.

Neither should the shock value of a sudden and complete transfer of responsibility be ignored.

Once they can no longer blame everything and anything on the Americans, it's just possible that Iraqi politicians will live up to their responsibilities. The propaganda victory for Al Qaeda will still be huge.

In the end, though, the religious extremists have nothing to offer their people except misery, repression and murder. They, too, are on the wrong side of history. They represent an attempt by the Middle Ages to conquer the 21st century.

The most important reason for getting out next year rather than lingering on is that the domino that Bush really fears is his own reputation.

"Victory," in the terms Bush once used, is no longer possible. He hopes, though, to avoid making a humiliating, hurried withdrawal while he's still president.

Bush made a terrible mistake when he got in. He's about to make another way by not getting out — for his own sake.