Letter to the Secretary - New York Times

Letter to the Secretary - New York Times
The New York Times

March 24, 2006
Op-Ed Columnist

Letter to the Secretary
By
PAUL KRUGMAN

Dear John Snow, secretary of the Treasury:

I'm glad that you've started talking about income inequality, which in
recent years has reached levels not seen since before World War II. But if
you want
to be credible on the subject, you need to make some changes in your
approach.

First, you shouldn't claim, as you seemed to earlier this week, that there's
anything meaningful about the decline in some measures of inequality between
2000 and 2003. Every economist realizes that, as The Washington Post put it,
"much of the decline in inequality during that period reflected the popping
of the stock market bubble," which led to a large but temporary fall in the
incomes of the richest Americans.

We don't have detailed data for more recent years yet, but the available
indicators suggest that after 2003, incomes at the top and the overall level
of
inequality came roaring back. That surge in inequality explains why, despite
your best efforts to talk up the economic numbers, most Americans are
unhappy
with the Bush economy.

I find it helpful to illustrate what's going on with a hypothetical example:
say 10 middle-class guys are sitting in a bar. Then the richest guy leaves,
and Bill Gates walks in.

Because the richest guy in the bar is now much richer than before, the
average income in the bar soars. But the income of the nine men who aren't
Bill Gates
hasn't increased, and no amount of repeating "But average income is up!"
will convince them that they're better off.

Now think about what happened in 2004 (the figures for 2005 aren't in yet,
but it was almost certainly more of the same). The economy grew reasonably
fast
in 2004, but most families saw little if any improvement in their financial
situation.

Instead, a small fraction of the population got much, much richer. For
example, Forbes tells us that the compensation of chief executives at the
500 largest
corporations rose 54 percent in 2004. In effect, Bill Gates walked into the
bar. Average income rose, but only because of rising incomes at the top.

Speaking of executive compensation, Mr. Snow, it hurts your credibility when
you say, as you did in a recent interview, that soaring pay for top
executives
reflects their productivity and that we should "trust the marketplace."
Executive pay isn't set in the marketplace; it's set by boards that the
executives
themselves appoint. And executives' pay often bears little relationship to
their performance.

You yourself, as you must know, are often cited as an example. When you were
appointed to your present job, Forbes pointed out that the performance of
the
company you had run, CSX, was "middling at best." Nonetheless, you were "by
far the highest-paid chief in the industry."

And the business careers of other prominent members of the administration,
including the president and vice president, seem to demonstrate the truth of
the adage that it's not what you know, it's who you know. So my advice on
the question of executive pay is: don't go there.

Finally, you should stop denying that the Bush tax cuts favor the wealthy. I
know that administration number-crunchers have produced calculations
purporting
to show that the tax cuts were tilted toward the middle class. But using the
right measure - the effect of the tax cuts on after-tax income - the bias
toward the haves and have-mores is unmistakable.

According to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, once the Bush tax cuts are
fully phased in, they will raise the after-tax income of middle-income
families
by 2.3 percent. But they will raise the after-tax income of people like
yourself, with incomes of more than $1 million, by 7.3 percent.

And those calculations don't take into account the indirect effects of tax
cuts. If the tax cuts are made permanent, they'll eventually have to be
offset
by large spending cuts. In practical terms, that means cuts where the money
is: in Social Security and Medicare benefits. Since middle-income Americans
will feel the brunt of these cuts, yet received a relatively small tax
break, they'll end up worse off. But the wealthy will be left considerably
wealthier.

Of course, my suggestions about how to improve your credibility would force
you to stop repeating administration talking points. But you're the
secretary
of the Treasury. Your job is to make economic policy, not to spout
propaganda. Oh, wait.

Posted by Miriam V